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Either that or people don't ask the right questions, don't understand the answers etc etc
Leaving coding aside as requested, it seems to me that the hardest thing to get right is the analysis of requirements, and that this is an area that no amount of 'methodologics' can help, except AFTER the fact.
For example, while it seems perfectly logical to abstract entities/events by analysing the verbs and nouns contained in a written description of a system, the fact remains that one must first have access to such a convenient description. For such a description to exist, the process of analysing the system must have already been completed by someone, somewhere, thus the problem already solved. "Once we've done our analysis, then we can proceed with the analysis".
This is AI complete! The process of analysing the text is not a process of analysis so much as it is translation, and unneccessary translation at that.